CURRENT STATUS OF MONSOON- 2008 SEP 5

Subject: CURRENT STATUS OF MONSOON- 2008

 Rainfall Scenario

            The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level ran close to the     foothills of the Himalayas during the week. Under its influence, Widespread/fairly widespread rainfall  with active/ vigorous monsoon conditions occurred over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during the week and over Bihar, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the first half of the week.

             Widespread/fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Kerala and Lakshadweep during the week and over Interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Karnataka during second half of the week in association with lower level cyclonic circulation. Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema also got good rainfall activity during the week.

            Subdued rainfall activity occurred over remaining parts of the country, especially central & northwestern parts of the country experienced deficient/ scanty rainfall during the week.

Table-1: Rainfall distribution over four broad homogeneous regions of India

 

Regions	Actual Rainfall (mm)	% Departure from LPA
Country as a whole	721.4	-3
Northwest India	564.4	9
Central India	748.5	-11
South Peninsula	569.8	-2
Northeast India	1153.3	-3

Meteorological Sub-division wise rainfall condition

 Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, number of sub-divisions with deficient rainfall is only 7 (Table-2). The details of deficient subdivisions and their cumulative rainfall as on 4^th September, 2008 is given in Table 3.  Compared to last week, the rainfall over North Interior Karnataka  has improved and is now within the normal range with departure from normal as -17%.  The rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Coastal Karnataka and Vidarbha has slightly deteriorated and now lies in the deficient category.  Marathawada, Kerala and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura continue to be deficient.

Table 2: Sub-division wise cumulative rainfall status

Category	1 June – 27 August	1 June – 4 September
Excess	6	4
Normal	26	25
Deficient	4	7
Scanty	0	0

Table -3 Meteorological Sub-divisions with deficient rainfall

S. No.	Met Sub-division	% Departure of rainfall from LPA, as on 4th September
1.	Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura	-24
2.	West Madhya Pradesh	-24
3.	Saurashtra & Kutch	-22
4.	Marathawada	-37
5.	Vidarbha	-22
6.	Coastal Karnataka	-20
7.	Kerala	-27

 Current Meteorological Analysis and Weather Forecast for next One Week

·        An upper air cyclonic circulation/ feeble low pressure area is likely to form over northwest and adjoining westcentral bay of Bengal  around 7^th and it is likely to move westwards. Under its influence, increase in rainfall activity is likely over north peninsula and adjoining central part of the country commencing from 7^th onwards.

·      Fairly widespread rainfall activity along the west coast with increase in intensity towards the second half of the week.

·      Decrease in rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu and over northwest India from 8^th September onwards.

·      Fairly widespread rainfall activity over northeastern states till 6^th September and decrease thereafter.

·      Under the influence of a system in mid-latitude westerlies, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over northwest India and adjoining Rajasthan during 5^th- 7^th September.

Next Press Release will be issued around 12^th September, 2008.